Author ORCID Identifier
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3623-168X Torój Andrzej
We investigated the spatial variation patterns of voting results in Polish parliamentary election in 2015 across 380 regions. That election was a milestone event in Polish politics that substantially affected Poland’s internal and foreign policy directions and promoted two emerging political parties as runners-up against the well-established ones. While socio-economic, cultural and geographical factors such as economic activity, historical legacies (post-Russian East vs post-German West) and economic dichotomies (cities vs the countryside) explain most variations for most parties, they do not appeared to fit as determinants of the new parties’ support, especially of right-wing populists. Demographic target groups of individual parties appear to be relatively unresponsive to their pre-election offerings. The spatial specification of econometric models considerably improves their statistical properties. We also examined mixed-W models to account for the unobservable spatial effects stemming from the construction of constituencies. Their distinctive sets of candidates added significantly to the explanation of the spatial variation in voting.
spatial analysis, election results, Poland, constituencies, mixed-W models
ALGAN, Y., GURIEV, S., PAPAIOANNOU, E. and PASSARI, E. (2017), ‘The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism’, Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Papers, DP12444, November 2017.
ANSOLABEHERE, S. and KONISKY, D.M. (2006), The introduction of voter registration and its effect on turnout, Political Analysis, 14, pp. 83–100.
BARISIONE, M. (2009), So, what difference do leaders make? Candidates’ images and the ‘conditionality’ of leader effects on voting, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 4, pp. 473–500.
BIEGAŃSKA, J. and SZYMAŃSKA, D. (2013), ‘The scale and the dynamics of permanent migration in rural and peri-urban areas in Poland – some problems’, [in:] SZYMAŃSKA, D. and CHODKOWSKA-MISZCZUK, J. (eds.), Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 21, pp. 21–30. Toruń: Nicolaus Copernicus University Press.
BITTNER, A. (2018), Leaders always mattered: The persistence of personality in Canadian elections, Electoral Studies, 54, pp. 297–302.
CAMPOS, J., ERICSSON, N.R. and HENDRY D.F. (eds.), (2003), Readings on General-to-Specific Modeling. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
CANCELA, J. and GEYS, B. (2016), ‘Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and subnational elections’, European Studies, 42, pp. 264–275.
CHEN, J. and RODDEN, J. (2013), ‘Unintentional Gerrymandering: Political Geography and Electoral Bias in Legislatures’, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 8, pp. 239–269.
CHO, W., GIMPEL, J. and HUI, I. (2012), ‘Voter Migration and the Geographic Sorting of the American Electorate’, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103.
CORNELIS, I., VAN HIEL, A., ROETS, A. and KOSSOWSKA, M. (2009), ‘Age differences in conservatism: Evidence on the mediating effects of personality and cognitive style’, Journal of Personality, 77, pp. 51–88.
DARMOFAL, D. (2006), ‘Spatial Econometrics and Political Science’, Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, January, pp. 5–7.
DETTREY, B.J., SCHWINDT-BAYER, L.A. (2009), Voter Turnout in Presidential Democracies, Comparative Political Studies, 42 (10), pp. 1317–1338.
EGGERS, A.C. (2015), Proportionality and Turnout: Evidence From French Municipalities, Comparative Political Studies, 48 (2), pp. 135–167.
ENDERSBY, J.W., KRIECKHAUS, J.T. (2008). Turnout around the globe: the influence of electoral institutions on national voter participation, 1972–2000, Electoral Studies, 27, pp. 601–610.
FAUVELLE-AYMAR, C. and FRANÇOIS, A. (2006), The impact of closeness on turnout: an empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot, Public Choice, 127, pp. 469–491.
FOWLER, A. (2013), Electoral and policy consequences of voter turnout: evidence from compulsory voting in Australia, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 8, pp. 159–182.
GARZIA, D. (2011), The personalization of politics in Western democracies: Causes and consequences on leader–follower relationships, The Leadership Quarterly, 22 (4), pp. 697–709.
GARZIA, D. (2012), Party and Leader Effects in Parliamentary Elections: Towards a Reassessment, Politics, 32 (3).
VAN GENT, W.P.C., JANSEN, E.F. and SMITS J.H.F. (2013), ‘Right-wing Radical Populism in City and Suburbs: An Electoral Geography of the Partij Voor de Vrijheid in the Netherlands’, Urban Studies, pp. 1–20, DOI: 10.1177/0042098013505889.
GEYS, B. (2006), ‘Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate-level research’, Electoral Studies, 25, pp. 637–663.
HOGAN, R.E. (2013), Campaign spending and voter participation in state legislative elections, Social Science Quarterly, 94, pp. 840–864.
HOLBROOK, T.M. and WEINSCHENK, A.C. (2014), Campaigns, Mobilization, and Turnout in Mayoral Elections, Political Research Quarterly, 67 (1), pp. 42–55.
JABŁONOWSKI, J. and MÜLLER, C. (2013), ‘3 sides of 1 coin – Long-term Fiscal Stability, Adequacy and Intergenerational Redistribution of the reformed Old-age Pension System in Poland’, National Bank Of Poland Working Paper, 145.
KOOP, G. (2003), Bayesian Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Chapter 11: Bayesian Model Averaging.
KOWALSKI, M., (2003), ‘Polaryzacja zachowań wyborczych w Polsce jako rezultat cywilizacyjnego rozdarcia kraju’, Przestrzeń wyborcza Polski, Polskie Towarzystwo Geograficzne Oddział Akademicki, Warsaw.
KRZEMIŃSKI, P. (2009), ‘Zachowania wyborcze w wyborach parlamentarnych i prezydenckich w Polsce w latach 2005–2007 – wzory przestrzennych zróżnicowań’, Przegląd Geograficzny, 81 (2).
MANSLEY, E. and DEMSAR, U. (2015), ‘Space matters: Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election’, Electoral Studies, 40, pp. 322–334.
Ministry of Regional Development in Poland, Poland National Strategic Reference Framework 2007–2013, URL https://www.funduszeeuropejskie.2007-2013.gov.pl/WstepDoFunduszyEuropejskich/Documents/NSRO_an_20_07.pdf (accessed on: 31.07.2018).
MORTON, A.D. (2017), ‘Spatial Political Economy’, Journal of Australian Political Economy, 77, pp. 21–38.
MUGHAN, A. (2015), Parties, conditionality and leader effects in parliamentary elections, Party Politics, 21 (1), pp. 28–39.
NIKOLENYI, C. (2010), ‘Concurrent Elections and Voter Turnout: The Effect of the De-Linking of State Elections on Electoral Participation in India’s Parliamentary Polls, 1971–2004’, Political Studies, 58 (1), pp. 214–233.
PESZYŃSKI, W. (2016), ‘Prezydencjalizacja zachowań wyborczych w elekcji parlamentarnej w 2015 roku’, Political Preferences, 12, pp. 37–54.
RAHAT, G. and SHEAFER, T. (2007), ‘The personalization(s) of politics: Israel 1949–2003’, Political Communication, 24, pp. 65–80.
REVELLI, F. (2003), ‘Reaction or interaction? Spatial process identification in multi-tiered government structures’, Journal of Urban Economics, 53 (1), pp. 29–53.
SAIB, M. (2017), ‘Spatial Autocorrelation in Voting Turnout’, Journal of Biometrics & Biostatistics, 8.
SEABROOK, N. (2009), ‘The Obama Effect: Patterns of Geographic Clustering in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections’, The Forum, 7 (2), Article 6.
TRUETT, K.R. (1993), ‘Age differences in conservatism’, Personality and Individual Differences, 14, pp. 405–411.
TURSKA-KAWA, A. (2016), ‘Preferowane wartości podstawowe a zachowania wyborcze w elekcji parlamentarnej 2015 roku’, Political Preferences, 13, pp. 105–118.
WCISEŁ, W. (2016), ‘Migratory crisis in the eyes of the party leaders during the parliamentary campaign in Poland in 2015’, Political Preferences, 13, pp. 21–34.
WILSON, G.D. (1973), The psychology of conservatism, Oxford, England: Academic Press.
ZARYCKI, T. (1997), ‘Nowa przestrzeń społeczno-polityczna Polski’, Studia Regionalne i Lokalne, 23 (56), Warsaw: Europejski Instytut Rozwoju Regionalnego i Lokalnego, UW.
ŻERKOWSKA-BALAS, M., LYUBASHENKO, I. and KWIATKOWSKA, A. (2016), ‘Determinanty Preferencji Wyborczych: Polska w latach 1997–2015’, Studia Socjologiczne, 4 (223), pp. 69–92.